When the Calendar Turns: Three Timelines That Shape New Year’s on Hospice
You walk into the house on January 3. The Christmas tree is still up, but half the lights are out. The patient who sat up for presents now lies bedbound. The daughter says, “He made it to the new year. He is rallying.” You check the PPS from December 23 and see the ten-point drop both of you avoided naming.
The calendar says begin again.
Biology says something has changed.
The patient lives on a different clock.
Two decades in this work show that three timelines collide every January.
Families live in Calendar Time.
Clinicians work in Biologic Time.
Patients inhabit True Time.
Hospice aligns these timelines before crises begin.
Timeline One: Families Live in Calendar Time
A fresh calendar promises renewal. Families internalize that expectation.
“He made it through Christmas. He must be stronger.”
“We can start fresh now that the holidays are over.”
“Once everyone gets back on routine, she will perk up.”
These beliefs are understandable. Holiday gatherings lift mood. Visitors add stimulation. Social energy rises. Population studies show that some patients survive through major holiday seasons at slightly higher-than-expected rates (Young and Hade, 2004; Phillips et al., 2004).
But when the holidays pass, the opposite often appears. Stimulation fades. Adrenaline settles. The body shows the decline it had been holding at bay. The contrast between celebration and clinical reality becomes clear. The day after Christmas and New Year’s Day show measurable spikes in cardiac deaths associated with stress, postponed care, and holiday disruptions in medical access (Phillips et al., 2004; Phillips et al., 2010).
To reconnect families to the body in front of them, I ask:
“What story did Christmas tell you about how he is doing.”
Most say, “He made it through the holidays. He must still be improving.”
Then I ask,
“What story is his body telling us this week.”
The gap between those stories is where biography and biology diverge. Our work is to align them with clarity and ground hope in what is true.
Timeline Two: Clinicians Work in Biologic Time
Biologic Time does not reset on January 1. Winter mortality rises in older adults and people with chronic illness due to cold exposure, infection burden, reduced daylight, and care system slowdowns (Callaly et al., 2013; Suulamo et al., 2024). December discharges carry higher thirty-day mortality, often due to system delays and patient complexity (Lapointe-Shaw et al., 2018; Lenti et al., 2020).
In January we see:
• persistent appetite decline
• meaningful weight loss
• delirium after disrupted routines
• deepening caregiver exhaustion
December often creates care plan discrepancies. January requires us to Make It Match.
Common mismatches:
• chart says “ambulates with walker” though the patient is bedbound
• chart lists “full meals” though intake has been twenty to thirty percent
• opioids unchanged despite new sedation or confusion (Featherstone et al., 2022; NCCN, 2025)
• DNR preferences unclear after multiple holiday visitors with differing views
January reveals every gap between the chart and the body.
Document January inflection points clearly: PPS change, weight trend, new functional losses, and caregiver strain. Each supports eligibility and guides the next plan of care.
Name what changed and say aloud what the holidays allowed us to soften.
Biologic Time becomes more visible in January. Our task is to name what we see and align care with what is true.
Timeline Three: Patients Live in True Time
True Time is what the patient actually feels. It is shaped by what remains meaningful in the patient’s lived experience. True Time reflects the patient’s internal reality, not dates on a calendar. Serious illness communication research shows that patients frame their condition through lived experience rather than chronological forecasts (Jackson and Emanuel, 2024; Jain and Bernacki, 2020).
Changes appear in small shifts: a patient who no longer wants the television on or simply asks to see the sky.
True Time moves the questions from the calendar to what matters:
What brings peace?
What is no longer necessary?
What is finished?
What remains?
A patient’s sense of time is shaped by personal history and culture, not the calendar’s symbolism. This is where Presence Over Pressure matters by attending to what is important now.
Those who spend the most time at the bedside often notice these shifts first. Aides, chaplains, and social workers see the pauses, refusals, tears, and quiet changes that reveal a different rhythm.
Closing Reflection
When the calendar turns, families see a new year.
Clinicians see what the body has been trying to show.
Patients see what is true in their lived experience.
Hospice brings these timelines together.
Our work in January is not to remove hope but to ground it in what the body is telling us now.
When Calendar Time, Biologic Time, and the patient’s lived True Time come back into alignment, the month becomes calmer and families feel prepared instead of surprised.
Ask this in the home, in IDG, and in the quiet moments of your own practice:
What would make this month a good month for a patient living in True Time, for a family living by the calendar, and for a team trusted to bring them together.
Begin the new year with clarity about time.
Clarity is excellent hospice care.
Summary (3–2–1)
Three Things to Remember
January exposes the gap between Calendar Time, Biologic Time, and the patient’s lived True Time.
Families interpret the month through renewal; the body often tells a different story.
Alignment begins when we name what January reveals and ground hope in what is true.
Two Things to Do
Reassess decline signals with clear eyes: appetite, weight, delirium, function, and caregiver strain.
Bring the three timelines into alignment through steady communication and attention to what matters now.
One Thing to Ask: What would make this month a good month for a patient living in True Time, for a family living by the calendar, and for a team trusted to bring them together.
Bibliography
Analitis A, Katsouyanni K, Biggeri A, et al. (2008). Effects of cold weather on mortality: Results from 15 European cities within the PHEWE project. American Journal of Epidemiology 168(12):1397-1408. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwn266
Baik D, Russell D, Jordan L, et al. (2018). Using the Palliative Performance Scale to estimate survival for patients at the end of life: A systematic review of the literature. Journal of Palliative Medicine 21(11):1651-1661. https://doi.org/10.1089/jpm.2018.0141
Bernacki RE, Block SD. (2014). Communication about serious illness care goals: A review and synthesis of best practices. JAMA Internal Medicine 174(12):1994-2003. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2014.5271
Bischoff KE, Patel K, Boscardin WJ, et al. (2024). Prognoses associated with Palliative Performance Scale scores in modern palliative care practice. JAMA Network Open 7(7):e2420472. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.20472
Callaly E, Mikulich O, Silke B. (2013). Increased winter mortality: The effect of season, temperature and deprivation in the acutely ill medical patient. European Journal of Internal Medicine 24(6):546-551. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejim.2013.02.004
Chen W, Chung JOK, Lam KKW, Molassiotis A. (2023). End-of-life communication strategies for healthcare professionals: A scoping review. Palliative Medicine 37(1):61-74. https://doi.org/10.1177/02692163221133670
Featherstone I, Sheldon T, Johnson M, et al. (2022). Risk factors for delirium in adult patients receiving specialist palliative care: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Palliative Medicine 36(2):254-267. https://doi.org/10.1177/02692163211065278
Gilligan T, Coyle N, Frankel RM, et al. (2017). Patient-clinician communication: American Society of Clinical Oncology consensus guideline. Journal of Clinical Oncology 35(31):3618-3632. https://doi.org/10.1200/JCO.2017.75.2311
Jain N, Bernacki RE. (2020). Goals of care conversations in serious illness: A practical guide. Medical Clinics of North America 104(3):375-389. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mcna.2019.12.001
Jackson VA, Emanuel L. (2024). Navigating and communicating about serious illness and end of life. The New England Journal of Medicine 390(1):63-69. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMcp2304436
Lapointe-Shaw L, Austin PC, Ivers NM, et al. (2018). Death and readmissions after hospital discharge during the December holiday period: Cohort study. BMJ 363:k4481. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.k4481
Lenti MV, Klersy C, Brera AS, et al. (2020). Clinical complexity and hospital admissions in the December holiday period. PLOS ONE 15(6):e0234112. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0234112
National Comprehensive Cancer Network. (2025). Palliative Care (Version 1.2025). NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines in Oncology.
Phillips DP, Barker GE, Brewer KM. (2010). Christmas and New Year as risk factors for death. Social Science and Medicine 71(8):1463-1471. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2010.07.024
Phillips DP, Jarvinen JR, Abramson IS, Phillips RR. (2004). Cardiac mortality is higher around Christmas and New Years than at any other time: The holidays as a risk factor for death. Circulation 110(25):3781-3788. https://doi.org/10.1161/01.CIR.0000151424.02045.F7
Suulamo U, Remes H, Tarkiainen L, Murphy M, Martikainen P. (2024). Excess winter mortality in Finland, 1971-2019: A register-based study. BMJ Open 14(2):e079471. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2023-079471
Young DC, Hade EM. (2004). Holidays, birthdays, and postponement of cancer death. JAMA 292(24):3012-3016. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.292.24.3012
Glossary
Calendar Time
The cultural and symbolic timeline families use to interpret illness.
It includes holidays, birthdays, seasons, and meaningful dates that shape expectations about stability, decline, or renewal. Calendar Time reflects meaning, not physiology.
Biologic Time
The timeline of the body’s actual trajectory.
It reflects the physiologic progression of illness through appetite, weight, function, sleep, circulation, mood, and clinical decline. Biologic Time follows the body, not the calendar.
True Time
The internal timeline patients live by near the end of life.
It is shaped by what remains meaningful, comfortable, or possible. True Time reflects the patient’s lived experience, not dates, forecasts, or external expectations. It is revealed through small shifts in attention, energy, and priorities.